QUALITY AT-BATS: The Truest Measure of a Hitter

Baseball is a game of statistics.  Whether it is hitting, pitching, baserunning, or even fielding; the game has always been based on numbers that determine the success of individual players and teams.

Traditionally, the measure of a good hitter has been based on his batting average – the number of hits divided by the number of at-bats.  So if a hitter has 3 hits in 10 at-bats, his batting average would be .300.

Once the “moneyball” concepts of Billy Beane and Oakland A’s became credible as an offensive strategy, on-base percentage (the number of hits + walks + hit by pitch divided by at-bats + walks + hit by pitch + sacrifice flies) became a big gauge for evaluating a hitter’s effectiveness.  The hitter reaching base safely 4 times in 10 plate appearances would have an on-base % of .400.

Although batting average and on-base % are certainly important in assessing a hitter’s performance, a coach has to take into consideration the player’s ability to create “quality at-bats” in measuring that player’s value in the team’s line-up.

First of all, there needs to be a numerical way to calculate this type of quality at-bat statistic.  In order to do this, there has to be a definition for what it is.  The following is a list of eight items that forms criteria for a “quality at-bat”:

1.  Base hit

2.  Walk

3.  Hit by pitch

4.  Reach base on error

5.  6 or more pitch at-bat (regardless of getting out)

6.  Sacrifice fly or bunt

7.  Any contact to advance a runner

8.  Any contact resulting in an RBI

Let’s say that a hitter takes 10 turns at the plate and the outcome is something like the following:

1^st at-bat:  Reached base on error

2^nd at-bat:  Struck out (7 pitch at-bat)

3^rd at-bat:  Walked

4^th at-bat:  Sacrifice bunt

5^th at-bat:  Doubled

6^th at-bat:  Grounded out to SS, but runner scored from 3B

7^th at-bat:  Hit by pitch

8^th at-bat:  Lined out to 3B (2 pitch at-bat)

9^th at-bat:  Sacrifice fly

10^th at-bat:  Grounded out to 2B, but moved runner from 2B to 3B

In this scenario, his batting average would be .167 and his on-base % would be .375.  Not the best numbers, and certainly not high enough to be considered a great success offensively when using just those stats.  However when looking at his “quality at-bats” as defined by the above criteria and dividing by the number of plate appearances, this same batter hit .900!  He also placed his team in the best position offensively to score runs which obviously leads to a better likelihood winning more games…

Thus proving his true worth in the team’s line-up.